Don’t think i’d surprise anyone if I said I actually agree 100% with @otteN although not the bubble part! =P
I think I showed NW didn’t matter when I beat Scorp, Devilz, Pitbull, Colorado, GxReborn, Whiteheaven and others in 2016, when in a 4 man fam, vs fams with max 12 players and under 3vs1/4vs1 having bankers without opp defense, with out fleet/only retake fleets and whooped all their buts and won size. For the ones who don’t know, we managed to do all above…with Artic being 25% of my fam and on paper half of the attacking force… Kenny, Robert & Jon are all still awesome! 
You can have inflated NW due to pop nw, rcp nw, having to much infra, too many bombers, transports, wizards, agents, since it is actual fleet and what’s being done with is what matters…resulting in size at end of round.
PS. I hate redness during tick and refuse to donate! Make it a green Patreon button and I might be persuaded 