Tri Round 47 Review - The Final Christmas Round Wrap-up

[You_Fool]

Exploration Phase

Phase Start Tick	Phase End tick	Percent of Round
T1	T250	37.1% of the Round

Overview

The exploration phase lasted 250 ticks, when the last two planets were explored by Pjeewpjeew in fam #12431

This meant that the overall rate of exploration for the round was 6.81 planets per tick, or 163.44 planets explored per day. There were 28 empires during exploration phase (or at least the vast majority), so the total number of exploration ships available were 2,333 during that time, or 224 ships per day. Thus the exploration efficiency was 74.3%. In comparison, the last two Triangulum rounds that were recorded (Tri 27 and 28) had exploration rates of 5.88 and 6.3 expos per tick respectively. So last round had a much more efficient exploration rate nearly 2 years on.

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Family Exploration

As expected, different families explored at different rates. Also, unsurprisingly, the families that explored the fastest tended to end near the top of the rankings.

1. Fam 12431 explored at 1.5 planets per tick (out of max 1.67 planets per tick | 89.8% efficiency)
2. Fam 12433 explored at 1.33 planets per tick (out of max 1.67 planets per tick | 79.6% efficiency)
3. Fam 12434 explored at 1.19 planets per tick (out of max 1.33 planets per tick | 89.5% efficiency)
4. Fam 12430 explored at 1.14 planets per tick (out of max 1.33 planets per tick | 85.7% efficiency)
5. Fam 12432 explored at 0.84 planets per tick (out of max 1.00 planets per tick | 84.0% efficiency )
6. Fam 12429 explored at 0.81 planets per tick (out of max 1.33 planets per tick | 60.9% efficiency)

Most of the above is impacted by player numbers per family and activity level. Fam 12429 especially was hit hard with several people joining, exploring 1 round, then deleting along with their planets. A more realistic efficiency is 81.0% based on the count of players that stayed in the fam over the course of the whole exploration phase.

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Exploration Phase Wars

Added to the complexity of the exploration rates, is the fact there were at least 2 expo wars (maybe more but exploration can cover most). These wars were hardly more than core-establisment skirmishes, but two at least lasted for long enough and with enough back and forth trading to count as full wars

1. 12431 v 12433 - Early Expo War
   12431 won a war vs 12433 as both stabilized their core border. This war lasted from T26 to T73 when the borders stabilized. No official NAP was signed at that point, but captures stopped after that and both sides had a stable core.

   

12431 won with +5 planets (approximate based on fam news reports)

2. 12431 v 12429 - Late Expo-War
   A late exploration phase war sprung up as 12431 hit 12429 for approximately 17 planets from T211 to T245. Most of the damage was done from T218 - T225 with 12429 losing 13 planets during this time. Once again some of the impacts are hard to gauge as exploration was still ongoing.

   

12431 won with +17 planets (approximate based on total planets lost by 12429

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End of Exploration Phase Rankings

Rank	Family	Planets	Networth	Population
1	#12431	386	1446938	4806269
2	#12433	305	1025273	2272631
3	#12434	282	1525778	14103255
4	#12430	261	1317642	2121523
5	#12429	187	1032167	4119882
6	#12432	185	1130379	10047395

Mid-Round Skirmishes and Growth

Phase Start Tick	Phase End tick	Percent of Round
T250	T575	48.2% of the Round

Overview

Most of the rest of the round was dominated by long periods of economic growth and a few major conflicts. Overall the NW of the galaxy grew by approximately 60,000 nw/tick.

There were 3 main conflicts, 12430 & 12433, then 12433 & 12429 (which triggered a lot of 12429 deletions) and then 12434 & 12431.

Wars

1. 12430 vs 12433 I - First Skirmish
   12430 first tried to take some planets off 12433 from T220 till T265. This was little more than some back-and-forth over a couple of systems, but the length of time it occurred for earned itself it’s own rating as a war.
   
   

12433 Won with +3 planets

2. 12430 v 12433 II - Full War
   A full 55 ticks after the last attack during the skirmish, 12430 started up hostilities vs 12433 again, this time following up the initial attacks with a war declaration. The war lasted until T396, with 12433 eventually gaining the advantage
   
   

12433 Won with +21 planets

3. 12431 vs 12429 - Big vs Small with Deletions
   Based on planet change data, from T385 until T404 12431 waged war against 12429. The end of this war, and the actual planets won and lost is hard to determine as most of 12429 deleted, and this deletion caused a mini-expo phase and the end of the war.
   
   

12431 Won with +52 planets

4. 12431 v 12432 - Mini-expo war
   Due to the deletion of 12429 and the mass amounts of empty planets, there was a scramble by all fams to claim the explorations. 12431 then also cleared 12432 up after this mini-expo phase. Planet gains are approximated based on planet changes. Other fams were also hitting both fams to clear some core as well. However, 12431 had a more concerted and longer effort to hit 12432, lasting from T400 - T417.
   
   

12431 Won with +22 planets

5. 12434 v 12431 - The last war
   Right at the end of the mid-round, there was one last big war as 12434 hit 12431 with everything they had in an attempt to make gains before the end of round. Both fams jumped big, with 12434 jumping 6mill NW, or 140% of their pre-war NW. The initial gains were to 12434, but the greater economy of 12431 was not disrupted enough, and soon after the initial salvo they jumped nearly 4mill (+40% nw). However, 12431 were able to hold their NW better, and 12434 started to lose more. Eventually the war ended, and 12431 were the winners
   
   

12431 Won with +23 planets

Mid-Round Phase Rankings

Rank	Family	Planets	Networth	Population
1	#12431	456	12,127,613	98,490,393
2	#12433	346	4,050,183	3,282,110
3	#12434	323	9,156,092	37,276,189
4	#12430	239	3,068,350	2,143,790
5	#12432	185	4,734,122	68,829,667
6	#12429	56	350,219	545,440

End of Round

Round Overview

Overall the round was won by 12431 with 477 planets and 21,898,681 NW. However, BillyBill from 12433 took top individual NW jump. There were now EoR wars, so 12431 was able to coast home on the back of their last 3 war wins agains 12429, 12432 & 12434. The hoped for war between #1 12431 & #2 12433 never happened.

End of Round Ranking - Planets

Rank	Family	Planets	Networth	Population
1	#12431: TD Hoffy Drummer Ret Oghren [40,50]	477	21,898,681	99,294,143
2	#12433: NameyNames [58,68]	346	19,334,385	3,282,110
3	#12434: Itchy Pickle WFD Soul [63,35]	302	10,680,572	45,086,926
4	#12430: Servants Of The Most high [36,12]	239	3,547,078	2,143,790
5	#12432: Bringers of the Keg [77,9]	185	16,715,784	68,829,367
6	#12429: [1,53]	58	370,506	579,690

End of Round Ranking - Networth

Rank	Family	Networth	Planets	Population
1	#12431: TD Hoffy Drummer Ret Oghren [40,50]	21,898,681	477	99,294,143
2	#12433: NameyNames [58,68]	19,334,385	346	3,282,110
3	#12432: Bringers of the Keg [77,9]	16,715,784	185	68,829,367
4	#12434: Itchy Pickle WFD Soul [63,35]	10,680,572	302	45,086,926
5	#12430: Servants Of The Most high [36,12]	3,547,078	239	2,143,790
6	#12429: [1,53]	370,506	58	579,690

End of Round Ranking - Individual Networth

Rank	Empire	Race	Networth	Planets	Population
1	BillyBill	Camaar	15,656,262	34	297,480
2	pewpew	Zoldyck	13,886,238	252	2,784,891
3	D3MON	Camaar	12,906,246	29	262,880
4	Bones	Revalons	6,297,045	144	1,282,720
5	piuwpiuw	Partaxian	5,281,492	110	95,475,412
6	ShaneMcgowan	Partaxian	2,982,517	89	67,967,327
7	pywpyw	Camaar	1,781,225	32	295,480
8	CaptainFlint	Partaxian	1,605,095	87	43,164,646
9	Poopdeck	Quantam	1,533,492	56	498,120
10	Elfdom	Revalons	1,370,017	79	719,960
11	JohnnyJohn	Viper MKII	1,255,283	101	926,360
12	PICKLEARMY	Camaar	1,244,940	15	141,440
13	SammySam	Deadgame110	1,167,574	96	874,600
14	LemmyLem	Revalons	1,151,489	93	1,000,750
15	Aldon	Partaxian	1,038,178	99	868,120
16	piewpiew	Revalons	871,033	82	728,360
17	Crow	Rheinmetall	820,862	66	585,160
18	Fearless_D	Partaxian	688,413	47	413,250
19	SOTMH	Camaar	450,470	14	142,460
20	RoyalVictorin	RBH	346,692	55	467,440
21	JetsicaRabbit	Camaar	103,777	22	182,920
22	Pjeewpjeew	Camaar	78,693	1	10,000
23	poo	Quantam	18,017	1	92,250
24	ORDOSTHECARRY	Partaxian	6,159	1	14,000
25	Revenant	The Reaper™	3,547	1	10,000
26	Protoss	[>"]>Pw9	2,250	1	10,000

Alternative Scoring

Elo ranking

Rank	Family	Current Elo
1	12431	1,882
2	12434	1,283
3	12433	1,262
4	12432	1,105
5	12430	1,020
6	12429	456

War Score

Rank	Family	War Score
1	12431	4,417
2	12433	4,910
3	12430	1,144
4	12434	315
5	12429	251
6	12432	222

Appendix A - Notes on Elo and War Score

Notes on War Score

War score is based on the calculations for victory in Clan Wars. Over course of last few rounds it has shown as a good indicator for war winner prediction, as well as indicator for most war like family. War score is shown here for information purposes. All war summaries use potential war score (war score calculated at start of war) to determine odds of declaring fam winning war.

Declaring Fam Win % = 1- [Fam(Decl) Potential score / Sum of both potential score]

Notes on Elo Rating

Elo rating is a system (normally used for games involving 2 players) that attempts to rate a players expected performance based on past performances. I have adapted it for use in IC in 3 ways. First is to give a running score based on NW ranking, second the same for Size ranking, and lastly as a rating on war performance.

Ratings are biased towards war performance.

The Elo rating should show expected outcomes in future ticks, i.e. high Elo should indicate that a fam will be higher ranked in Size and NW rankings, and more likely to win any war when compared to a lower Elo rated fam. Is a good indicator of war performance. Elo ratings could be used to later determine player ratings.

This was calculated using the standard Elo calculation, modified slightly

 Elo(n) = Elo(n-1) + k(size) * (S(size) - E) + k(NW) * (S(NW) - E) + dElo(War)

Where:

   Elo(n)     =   Elo rating this tick
   Elo(n-1)   =   Elo rating last tick
   k(Size)    =   Elo coefficient for Size ranking (currently set to `5`)
   k(NW)      =   Elo coefficient for NW ranking (currently set to `5)
   S(Size)    =   Modified Size Rank result this tick
   S(NW)      =   Modified NW Rank result this tick
   E          =   Expected result based on Elo rating

The modified ranks are calculated by dividing the actual rank by the number of families in the galaxy less 1

S = Rank / [Num(fam) - 1]

E is calculated based off the last ticks Elo for the fam, and the average Elo for all fams in the galaxy

E = R1 / (R1 + R2 )

Where

R1 = 10^(Elo(n-1) / 400)
R2 = 10^(MeanElo / 400)

The dElo(War) is the change (delta) in Elo ratings from wars. It is calculated as follows (Standard Elo calculation)

Elo(n) = Elo(n-1) + k(war) * (S - E)

Where

    Elo(n)     =   Elo rating this tick
    Elo(n-1)   =   Elo rating last tick
    k(war)     =   Elo coefficient for wars (currently set to 50)
    S          =   Result of war (Win S = 1, Loss S = 0)
    E          =   Expected result based on Elo rating

E is calculated similar to NW and Size ranking Elo, but uses the Elo of the 2nd fam in the war

E = R1 / (R1 + R2 )

Where

R1 = 10^(Elo(Fam1 n-1) / 400)
R2 = 10^(Elo(Fam2 n-1) / 400)

Elo(n) is worked out for each fam (R1 and R2 are swapped for each fam)

Calculation for War Score

Potential War Score = modifier * Size Score + NW(modified) Score

Where

Modifier = [1- % difference in planets] if difference is more than 15%
Size Score = 10 * [ Number of Planets of fam at start of war / Number of planets of other fam at start of war]
NW(modified) Score = 10 * [NW of fam at start of war less NW due to planets / NW of other fam at start of war less NW due to planets]

After war ends, the final score is determined based on who won the most planets, and how many planets they won

Final Score = Potential Score  * Winning Modifier * Farming Modifier

Where

Winning Modifier = 100% if gain more planets (Win) or 25% if lose more planets (Lose)
Farming Modifier = 100% if less than 15% of planets lost, 75% of 15-25% of planets lost, 50% if 25-35% of planets lost, 25% if 35-50% of planets lost, 0% if more than 50% of planets lost